Expiring ACA Subsidies to Double US Premiums in 2026

The expiration of enhanced premium tax credits under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) at the end of 2025 is expected to cause health insurance premiums to spike dramatically in 2026, with average unsubsidized premiums potentially more than doubling for millions of enrollees. This policy risk, rather than a market malfunction, is the underlying cause of the price increases, which could see families facing five-figure annual premium hikes. The ACA’s subsidy structure previously suppressed volatility in premiums, but with the credits lapsing, consumers will be exposed to the full cost, leading to widespread unaffordability across income levels. The timing mismatch between Congressional subsidy decisions and open enrollment creates uncertainty, as insurers set rates without clear policy direction and consumers must pick plans with incomplete information. Additionally, employer-sponsored insurance premiums are also projected to rise significantly, compounding the affordability crisis. The government shutdown and political stalemate in Congress have obscured the issue, but as enrollment approaches, the public faces the reality of soaring health insurance costs.