Thailand Lowers 2025 GDP Growth Forecast to 2.1% Amid US Tariffs

Thailand's economic growth forecast for this year has been downgraded by both the government and leading business groups, with estimates now ranging between 2.0% and 2.2%, largely due to the impact of U.S. tariffs and a global economic slowdown. Key drivers such as exports and foreign tourist arrivals are expected to see weaker growth than previously projected, while domestic consumption remains a relative bright spot. The Ministry of Finance and the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking both highlighted diminished export prospects and expressed concerns over currency appreciation and trade competitiveness. The Bank of Thailand has responded by cutting interest rates for a second consecutive meeting and signaled readiness to ease further if needed, as inflation rates have turned negative for the first time in over a year. Moody's has also revised Thailand's credit outlook from stable to negative, warning of reduced fiscal space. Policymakers are urged to expedite fiscal stimulus and monitor the evolving tariff situation to mitigate economic headwinds.