Expiring ACA Credits Could Double Premiums

As open enrollment begins Nov. 1, millions face steep 2026 ACA premium increases because enhanced premium tax credits — expanded during the pandemic — are set to expire Dec. 31 unless Congress acts. Analysts and reporting say premiums could more than double on average nationwide without the credits, with older adults hit hardest (KFF reports examples of roughly $920 more per month for some 60‑year‑olds and potential annual increases of tens of thousands in certain states). State marketplaces warn of severe local impacts: Connecticut projects an average 26% increase for about 150,000 people, Covered California estimates net costs could rise about 97% for nearly 2 million enrollees, and Wisconsin officials expect many to face hundreds of dollars in monthly increases. The dispute over extending the credits is central to the month‑long government shutdown, with Democrats refusing to reopen without subsidy extensions and most Republican leaders saying they will not negotiate subsidies until the government reopens, leaving consumers and insurers in limbo. Experts warn a late deal would be disruptive and confusing for 2026 enrollment and that extending the credits would carry sizable federal costs; failure to act risks people dropping coverage and destabilizing marketplaces.