Kalshi Wins Court Case, Legalizes Election Betting

Kalshi, a newly regulated platform for election betting, has gained momentum after winning a court ruling that legalized betting on U.S. elections, with trading volumes exceeding $30 million within three weeks. The market currently indicates that Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris by 14 percentage points, reflecting a strong sentiment among U.S. investors, who are now able to place significant bets on the election outcome. In contrast, Polymarket, an unregulated competitor, has established itself as a market leader with over $2 billion in trading volume and shows 64% of participants predicting a Trump victory. Both platforms provide a unique approach to gauging public sentiment and expectations regarding political events. While Kalshi's user base is restricted to U.S. citizens, Polymarket allows for broader participation without stringent identity verification. This shift towards prediction markets highlights the evolving landscape of political forecasting, driven by financial speculation rather than traditional polling methods.