ASEAN GDP Growth Forecasts Reflect Trade Uncertainty, Moderate 2025 Outlooks

Economic forecasts for 2025 in Southeast Asia show cautious optimism amid ongoing global trade uncertainties, particularly between the US and China. Malaysia's GDP growth is maintained at 4.5%, supported by strong domestic demand and strategic economic initiatives, though caution remains about potential tariff impacts after the current 90-day US-China tariff suspension expires. Hong Kong anticipates 2-3% growth, benefiting from eased trade tensions and China's steady economic policies, but remains wary of US trade and monetary policy uncertainties. Singapore's growth outlook has been downgraded to 0-2%, with Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong emphasizing the need for caution despite encouraging US-China tariff talks; the city-state faces significant exposure to global trade tensions, especially in its export sectors. Analysts warn Singapore's GDP could fall as low as 0.5% if trade disputes intensify, given its high dependence on exports and imports, with key industries like chemicals and electronics at risk from US tariffs and broader economic slowdowns. Across the region, governments are considering countercyclical policies and targeted support to mitigate these external pressures while leveraging domestic economic resilience.