OPEC+ Nears July 411,000-Barrel Daily Output Increase Amid Global Supply Concerns

Oil markets are closely watching the upcoming OPEC+ meeting expected to approve a 411,000 barrels per day output increase for July, continuing recent supply hikes. This production adjustment, largely anticipated and priced in, aims to balance rising global demand amid healthy market fundamentals and low inventories. Geopolitical tensions, including stalled Russia-Ukraine peace talks and potential new US sanctions on Russia, add uncertainty to energy flows, while US restrictions on Venezuelan crude exports further impact supply dynamics. US gasoline demand has recently fallen to a five-year low, and European natural gas markets face tightness exacerbated by Norwegian outages. Additionally, Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ members are expanding refining operations and asset sales to offset crude price declines, while weather concerns loom with an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season prediction. Overall, market participants adopt a cautious stance, balancing supply growth against geopolitical and demand-side risks.