China Shifts Soybean Purchases to Argentina

The Trump administration, led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, has been negotiating broad financial support for Argentina — including talks of a possible $20 billion swap line after President Trump’s outreach to Javier Milei — and Argentina quickly suspended a 26% soybean export tax to attract capital. That suspension prompted a surge in Chinese buying of Argentine soybeans (reports range from at least 10 to as many as 35 cargoes booked, many for November), sharply undercutting U.S. sellers and leaving U.S. farmers entering harvest with few or no orders from China. U.S. soybean exporters were already hit by a roughly 20% retaliatory Chinese tariff and falling prices, and analysts warn China’s pivot to Argentina, Brazil and other South American suppliers could be durable and squeeze U.S. exports, domestic prices, crushers and related industries. Some booked Argentine shipments may be for next year’s crop and are not guaranteed, but farm groups including the American Soybean Association say the farm economy is suffering and Midwestern states face broader ripple effects across manufacturing, insurance and logistics. The White House says relief for farmers is possible — potentially large subsidies or diverted tariff revenue similar to 2018 aid — while China has urged the U.S. to lift unilateral tariffs to restore normal soybean trade flows.