Deutsche Bank Warns 50% Chance of U.S. Recession

A recent Deutsche Bank survey indicates a 50% likelihood of the U.S. economy entering a recession this year, as consumer and business sentiment declines despite low unemployment rates. The survey, conducted between March 17-20, involved 400 participants and revealed a growing concern over a potential economic slowdown, with a 43% chance of faltering growth. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged these worries while asserting the economy remains 'strong overall', but the Fed has reduced its GDP growth forecast to 1.7%, the lowest expected since 2011. Furthermore, the Fed raised its core inflation outlook to 2.8%, exceeding its target of 2%, igniting fears of stagflation—a scenario not experienced since the early 1980s. Economists warn that the combination of rising prices and stagnant growth presents a serious challenge for policymakers. The situation is compounded by uncertainties surrounding tariff policies, which have caused market jitters in recent weeks.