Democrat Sherrill Leads Tight New Jersey Governor Race Amid Military Record Controversy

Democratic candidate Mikie Sherrill leads Republican Jack Ciattarelli by a narrow margin in the 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial race, with both candidates maintaining strong support from their respective bases amid a highly competitive contest. Sherrill, a former Navy helicopter pilot and congresswoman, has recently faced controversy over the Trump administration's improper release of her unredacted military records, including sensitive personal information, to an ally of Ciattarelli, which has sparked a formal investigation by the National Archives' watchdog. The release of these records, alongside revelations about Sherrill's involvement in a Naval Academy cheating scandal, has fueled accusations of political dirty tricks and intensified the race's scrutiny. Despite these challenges, Sherrill continues to garner significant support from Black and Hispanic voters, women, and younger demographics, while Ciattarelli draws backing from MAGA supporters and certain white demographic groups. The race is closely watched as a bellwether for broader political trends and the influence of President Trump's policies, with voter enthusiasm and potential shifts in support remaining key factors as Election Day approaches. Both campaigns exhibit high voter certainty, but the presence of persuadable voters suggests the outcome remains uncertain.