KFF: ACA Premiums Could Rise 26% If Credits Expire

Ahead of 2026 open enrollment, premiums for Affordable Care Act marketplace plans could surge if enhanced premium tax credits expire amid the federal government shutdown, with KFF estimating an average 26% increase overall (about 30% on Healthcare.gov and 17% in state-run marketplaces). Analysts including KFF and CBPP warn average out-of-pocket premium payments could more than double in some places, producing catastrophic spikes in some states — Covered California and Colorado scenarios show many plans could double, Vermont examples suggest premiums could quadruple, and Florida and New Mexico projections indicate large percentage increases. Insurers are expected to pass higher costs into premiums and employer plans may also see larger increases, raising costs for workers and employers. Officials and advocates say these shocks could push millions to drop coverage, increase uncompensated care, and heighten political pressure on Congress to extend the subsidies. The political stalemate — Democrats pressing to tie subsidy extensions to reopening the government and Republicans refusing to negotiate before funding is restored — has left uncertainty about relief as open enrollment begins Nov. 1.