CBO Reports 10 Million More Uninsured, $3.4 Trillion Deficit From Trump Tax Law

The Congressional Budget Office has projected that President Donald Trump's tax and spending law, enacted on July 4, 2025, will increase the federal deficit by approximately $3.4 trillion through 2034 and result in nearly 10 million more Americans being uninsured by that year. This legislation, known as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, includes significant cuts to Medicaid and changes to health insurance marketplaces, with estimated reductions in federal spending exceeding $1 trillion, primarily due to Medicaid work requirements, provider tax freezes, and reduced state payments. While Republicans emphasize the law prevents a significant tax increase for most Americans and expect economic growth to offset deficits, Democrats criticize the bill for increasing the uninsured population and budget deficits. The CBO's latest estimates are slightly improved from earlier projections, largely because a provision that would have cut federal funding for states covering undocumented immigrants was removed. Experts note that the CBO may overestimate coverage losses, as some individuals are enrolled in multiple programs, and the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services has been authorized to address such overlaps, potentially mitigating the net increase in uninsured numbers. The bill also phases out certain clean energy tax credits and reduces spending on Medicaid and food assistance programs, fueling ongoing political debate over its long-term economic and social impact.