Medicaid Cuts Could Lead to 30,000 Annual Deaths, Warns CAP

Several analyses warn that Republican plans to reduce federal Medicaid funding could lead to millions losing health coverage and tens of thousands of additional deaths annually. The proposed $880 billion cut, part of a broader budget push, would likely force states to drop Medicaid expansion, with estimates suggesting 15.9 to 17 million adults could lose coverage and about 34,200 excess deaths each year if states respond by ending expansions. Vulnerable populations—including children, older adults, people with disabilities, and those in intermediate care facilities—would be especially hard hit, as Medicaid is the primary funding source for their care. Many states have 'trigger' laws that would automatically end Medicaid expansion if the federal match rate drops, putting coverage for millions at risk. Experts and bipartisan health officials warn these cuts could destabilize health systems, force states to reduce benefits or tighten eligibility, and devastate local economies. While the current proposal faces strong opposition and is unlikely to pass as written, it signals ongoing efforts to scale back Medicaid support.