Oil Climbs on Geopolitics, Supply Signals

Oil prices rose this week, with Brent near $67 a barrel and WTI around $63–64, as markets reacted to tighter near-term signals and renewed geopolitical risk. An American Petroleum Institute report showed a 3.8 million-barrel U.S. crude draw, and NATO vowed a “robust” response to Russian airspace incursions; intensified Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries and pipelines also supported the advance. EU moves to tighten sanctions on Russian oil, U.S. political rhetoric and talks of Russian diesel-export restrictions kept traders focused on potential supply disruptions. Offsetting those supports, prospects for more supply — notably a likely restart of roughly 230,000 bpd of exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan, rising OPEC+ output and resumed shipments from other producers — and signs of weakening demand capped gains. Market structure showed some tightening (Brent prompt spreads in backwardation), but analysts and the IEA warned of a possible surplus later this year as global supply growth and demand headwinds persist.