Leading Economic Index Drops 0.3% Amid Consumer Pessimism

The Conference Board reported a 0.3% decline in the Leading Economic Index (LEI) for February, following a revised 0.2% drop in January. This decline reflects increasing consumer pessimism about future business conditions, which was the largest negative factor affecting the index. Manufacturing new orders also retreated after a brief improvement, contributing to the index's decline. Despite the negative trends, the LEI's six-month decline of 1% is less severe than the 2.1% drop seen in the previous six months, suggesting some moderation in economic headwinds. However, analysts forecast a slowdown in US real GDP growth to around 2% by 2025, influenced by significant policy uncertainties and declines in consumer confidence. The Coincident Economic Index saw a 0.3% increase, indicating some positive movement in the economy despite the challenges reflected in the LEI.