OPEC+ Raises Output as China Demand Slows

OPEC+ agreed to a modest 137,000 barrels-per-day production increase for November after debate over larger hikes, having already lifted quotas by more than 2.5 million bpd since April, though actual exports have sometimes lagged allowed increases. The move helped push Brent above $65 and WTI near $61, and traders say the market currently tilts toward being well supplied with oil oscillating in the upper mid‑$60s. Forecasters including the IEA and OPEC have cut Chinese oil demand-growth estimates for 2025 as China’s sluggish economy and a transport shift to electric vehicles and LNG slow consumption, even as China continues to stockpile crude mainly from Russia and the Middle East. Refinery utilization in China has remained above historical averages driven by fuel‑to‑chemicals conversions for petrochemical feedstocks, while independent refiners face import restrictions and rising U.S. crude flows into Asia add competition. The outlook remains highly uncertain because the unwinding of voluntary cuts, China storage flows and geopolitical risks — notably Iran’s snapback measures and the Russia–Ukraine conflict — are pushing in different directions.