Czech Vote Could Boost Pro‑Russian Influence

Czech voters are heading to two-day parliamentary elections on Oct. 3–4; populist former prime minister Andrej Babiš’s ANO party leads at roughly 30% but is unlikely to win an outright majority, leaving government formation dependent on smaller parties near the 5% threshold. Analysts warn a Babiš-led coalition possibly including the Motorists, far-right SPD or the pro‑Russian Stačilo! could pull Prague away from its current pro‑Western course and trim military aid to Ukraine or reverse initiatives such as the Czech ammunition-sourcing scheme and restrictions on Russian diplomats. British and Czech security sources say such a shift would undermine joint efforts to counter Russian espionage and intelligence cooperation in Europe, while Moscow and pro‑Russian actors have amplified disinformation aimed at influencing the vote. The campaign has featured visible anti‑Kremlin symbolism — including renamings of streets and squares near the Russian embassy for figures like Boris Nemtsov and Anna Politkovskaya — which has provoked a diplomatic spat and reciprocal attacks on the Czech mission in Moscow. With turnout underway, coalition arithmetic, legal challenges and presidential checks mean a Babiš return is far from assured, but the outcome will be decisive for Czechia’s stance on Ukraine, EU/NATO ties and European security cooperation.