Czech Populist Babis Expected to Lead Coalition-Dependent Government Amid Legal and Security Challenges

Czech Republic's parliamentary elections on October 3-4, 2025, are centered on the potential comeback of billionaire populist Andrej Babis, whose party ANO leads in polls but is unlikely to secure a majority, necessitating coalition talks with far-right and far-left parties. Babis, who has shifted from liberal to national conservative views, denies plans to leave the EU or NATO but opposes EU green policies, and his allies have pushed for referendums on exiting these alliances, creating tensions. President Petr Pavel may block Babis from becoming prime minister due to legal issues related to fraud allegations and concerns over his ambiguous stance on NATO. The election outcome poses significant implications for Czech foreign policy, including potential alignment with Hungary's Viktor Orbán and a softer stance on Ukraine, amidst worries about Russian interference and national security. Babis's strategy includes criticizing mainstream parties for corruption and advocating for national control over the EU, but navigating extremist coalition partners and legal challenges will complicate his return to power. The president emphasizes scrutinizing ministerial nominees' positions on EU and NATO membership, signaling potential hurdles for Babis's government formation.