Reform UK Leads Major Poll Predicted to Reshape British Politics

A series of new mega polls conducted by More in Common indicate that Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, would become the largest party in the British Parliament if a general election were held today, winning around 180 seats. Both Labour and the Conservatives are projected to win 165 seats each, leaving all three parties well short of a majority and pointing to a highly fragmented political landscape. The data suggest Labour could lose as many as 246 MPs, including up to 10 Cabinet ministers, with major losses in traditional 'red wall' areas, Scotland, and the Welsh Valleys. Reform’s gains would mostly come at Labour’s expense, particularly in working-class constituencies that previously supported Brexit. Analysts caution that polls conducted years before an election may not accurately predict final outcomes, but the results reflect a dramatic shift in voter alignment and the splintering of the coalition that delivered Labour’s recent landslide. This shift highlights growing support for populist and anti-establishment parties at the expense of traditional political dominance.