NOAA Reports Weak La Niña Expected to Influence US, Philippines, Global Winters

A La Niña watch has been issued for fall 2025, with NOAA forecasting a 53% to 58% chance of its emergence by the end of the year, likely persisting through winter and influencing weather patterns across the U.S. La Niña is characterized by cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, which can alter global atmospheric conditions and impact temperature and precipitation. While the upcoming La Niña is expected to be weak, it may bring drier-than-normal conditions to the U.S. Southwest and Four Corners region, with wetter conditions in the Pacific Northwest. In the Philippines, Pagasa anticipates short-lived La Niña conditions possibly beginning as early as September, which could increase tropical cyclone activity and rainfall, raising flood and landslide risks. Global climate monitoring also indicates a potential weak La Niña developing alongside generally warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures, especially across the Northern Hemisphere, with varied regional impacts on rainfall such as enhanced rainfall in East Africa and Australia due to a negative Indian Ocean Dipole. These forecasts highlight the importance of monitoring La Niña’s development for anticipating seasonal weather changes worldwide.