Russia Surpasses 82 Million Tons Wheat Harvest Drives Export Forecast Rise

Russia continues to solidify its position as the world's leading wheat exporter with a record harvest of 82.4 million tons in 2024, primarily from key regions like Rostov and Krasnodar. SovEcon has raised its forecast for Russian wheat exports in the 2025-26 marketing year to 42.9 million tons, up 2 million tons due to improved harvest prospects, particularly in the central region, and enhanced global competitiveness. Russian wheat prices have risen to around $225-$228 per metric ton FOB, reflecting tight global supplies and competition from other producers such as Romania, Bulgaria, and Ukraine, which face export restrictions. Despite a slight fall in export volumes at the start of the season, the removal of export duties and favorable crop conditions are expected to support sustained export growth. The combination of a bumper harvest, competitive pricing, and strategic export policies underscores Russia's growing influence on global wheat markets and its role in global food security. These developments are likely to impact international grain prices and trade flows in the coming year.