Russia Plans Oreshnik Missile Deployment in Belarus by 2025

Russia plans to deploy its advanced Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile systems in Belarus by the end of 2025, a move confirmed by Belarusian Security Council State Secretary Alexander Volfovich and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The deployment sites have been finalized, and preparations are ongoing, signaling a deepening military alliance between Moscow and Minsk amid heightened tensions with NATO and ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The Oreshnik missile, first used in combat in November 2024 against Dnipro, Ukraine, is considered hypersonic and nuclear-capable, although Ukrainian intelligence disputes the presence of nuclear weapons in Belarus and questions the immediacy of full deployment. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has repeatedly affirmed the missile's imminent stationing in Belarus, with the country also producing launchers domestically, but full deployment depends on missile delivery from Russia. Analysts caution that while the Oreshnik represents a significant threat to regional stability, it may currently be more of a strategic intimidation tool, with full operational capability and deployment yet to be fully realized. This development further complicates security dynamics in Eastern Europe, challenging NATO's posture and raising concerns about escalation.