US Health Insurance Premiums Expected to Rise Sharply in 2026 Amid Subsidy Dispute

Health insurance premiums on the US federal marketplace are expected to rise sharply in 2026, with benchmark silver plan rates increasing by an average of 30%, marking the steepest hike since 2018. This surge is largely driven by the potential expiration of pandemic-era enhanced subsidies, which currently help over 13 million people afford coverage, and if not extended by Congress, could cause premiums for many to double or triple. The federal government shutdown and ongoing partisan disputes over these subsidies have intensified concerns, with Democratic lawmakers pushing for extensions to protect lower and middle-income Americans from unaffordable costs, while Republicans argue the supports were never intended to be permanent. Arizona Senator Ruben Gallego highlighted the risk that nearly half a million Arizonans could see their premiums double, disproportionately affecting middle-income earners rather than high-income individuals. These rising costs come amid broader challenges including medical inflation, rising drug and hospital expenses, and increased enrollment since 2020, stressing insurers' margins and affordability for consumers. Open enrollment begins November 1, with consumers poised to face a significantly more expensive insurance landscape unless legislative action is taken.