UniCredit Stake in Commerzbank Spurs Takeover Speculation

UniCredit has increased its stake in Commerzbank to approximately 28%, through a combination of direct ownership and derivatives, as it pursues a potential takeover of the German lender. This move aligns with UniCredit's strategy to expand its influence in the German banking sector, despite resistance from the German government, which views the potential takeover as an 'unfriendly attack'. The European Central Bank (ECB) is supportive of cross-border banking mergers that enhance competitiveness and has begun the regulatory approval process, which could allow UniCredit to increase its stake to 29.9% without triggering a mandatory takeover offer. UniCredit emphasizes that its investment in Commerzbank reflects a belief in substantial value within the bank that needs to be realized, and it does not affect its separate acquisition efforts with Italian bank Banco BPM. The German trade union verdi has expressed concerns over potential job cuts at Commerzbank if the takeover proceeds. Despite the growing stake, UniCredit CEO Andrea Orcel acknowledges that the likelihood of a full acquisition has decreased, and a sale of the stake could be possible.