2026 COLA Projections Decline Amid Tariff Effects

The projected cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for Social Security in 2026 is expected to be 2.3%, a slight increase from prior forecasts but below the 2025 COLA of 2.5%. This forecast comes as the Senior Citizens League warns that the recent tariffs imposed by the Trump administration could adversely affect seniors by raising prices on essential goods, including medications and food. Analysts suggest that while a higher COLA might result from increased inflation due to tariffs, it could further strain seniors’ finances as their benefits do not keep pace with rising costs. The organization advocates for exemptions to tariffs on critical products needed by seniors to mitigate financial pressures. Economists have raised concerns that these tariffs may act as a new tax burden on consumers, complicating the financial landscape for older adults. The COLA is calculated using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners, based on spending habits in various sectors essential for daily living.