Reform UK Leads Welsh Senedd Polls Ahead Caerphilly By-Election

Reform UK is currently favored to win the Caerphilly by-election, marking their first seat in the Welsh Senedd, with betting odds giving them a strong lead over Plaid Cymru and Labour. This by-election is seen as a significant indicator ahead of the 2026 Senedd elections, where Reform has surged in popularity, leading in multiple polls with around 30% support, ahead of Labour and Plaid Cymru. Despite Reform likely becoming the largest party with an estimated 37 seats in the expanded 96-seat Senedd, projections indicate they would be unable to form a government without coalition partners. The most probable outcome would be a coalition between Plaid Cymru and Labour, which together could command a majority. Labour’s historic hold on Caerphilly and the Senedd is under threat, underscoring the shifting political landscape in Wales. Nigel Farage's leadership of Reform UK and the party’s growing influence signal a potential shake-up in Welsh politics and a challenge to traditional parties in the upcoming elections.