Thailand's Economy Faces Challenges in 2025

Thailand's economy is anticipated to face significant challenges in 2025, with growth projections between 2.05% and 2.7%, primarily due to high household debt, investment uncertainties, and trade tensions exacerbated by Donald Trump's potential return to the presidency. Experts suggest that the country's export sector will struggle under the weight of proposed US tariff increases, leading to a projected growth rate of just 1.9% and a possible trade deficit with China of over 1.6 trillion baht. Meanwhile, the new Prime Minister, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, has introduced an ambitious economic revival package aimed at stimulating growth through digital initiatives and infrastructure improvements. Despite maintaining low inflation rates and a stable monetary policy, the Bank of Thailand faces pressures from high household debt and non-performing loans. The Pheu Thai Party's leadership under Paetongtarn has raised questions regarding her independence from her influential father, Thaksin Shinawatra, amid concerns about the political implications of their family legacy. As Thailand navigates these economic and political landscapes, the outlook remains uncertain, shaped by both domestic policy decisions and global economic developments.