Colorado State Lowers 2025 Hurricane Forecast Maintains Above-Average Activity

Colorado State University has slightly downgraded its 2025 Atlantic hurricane season forecast, now predicting 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes, reducing the previous numbers by one storm and one hurricane. The main reason for this adjustment is higher-than-average wind shear in the Caribbean, which tends to disrupt storm development and is typically linked to less active hurricane seasons. Despite this decrease, the forecast still calls for a slightly above-average season, supported by slightly warmer sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic and ENSO-neutral conditions in the tropical Pacific. The CSU team emphasizes that the season remains favorable for hurricane formation and intensification and highlights a slightly elevated probability of major hurricane landfalls along the U.S. coastline and in the Caribbean. Experts caution that even one landfalling hurricane can significantly impact communities, underscoring the importance of preparedness. The forecast adjustments reflect ongoing monitoring and analysis, including the use of essential data from institutions like the National Center for Atmospheric Research, although its funding has been threatened recently.