Japan Ruling Coalition Risks Upper House Majority Loss, PM Ishiba Future Uncertain

Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba faces a critical upper house election that could further weaken his ruling coalition's hold on power amid rising public discontent. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior partner, Komeito, must secure at least 50 seats in the election to maintain a slim majority, a target that appears increasingly difficult given poor poll numbers and economic challenges such as inflation, wage stagnation, and US tariffs. The coalition lost its majority in the lower house in the October 2024 general election, forcing Ishiba to lead a minority government, and losing the upper house majority would complicate his administration’s ability to govern. Internal party dissent could follow a setback, potentially leading to Ishiba’s resignation or a realignment of political alliances. Ishiba, known for his policy detail focus and defense interests, has faced criticism for inconsistent economic policies, contributing to voter dissatisfaction. The election outcome is seen as a pivotal moment that may end Ishiba's premiership and open the door for right-wing populist advances.