Conservative Democratic Alliance Wins Portugal Snap Election, Far Right Gains Ground

In Portugal's recent early parliamentary elections, the centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD), led by caretaker Prime Minister Luís Montenegro, secured a victory but once again fell short of an absolute majority, winning around 33% of the vote. The far-right populist party Chega made historic gains, reaching approximately 23% of the vote and challenging the long-dominant Socialist Party (PS) for second place, signaling a significant shift in the country's political landscape. Despite Montenegro's loss in a previous vote of no confidence related to allegations about his family's business dealings, voters appeared unconcerned, and his party increased its share compared to the last election. The election campaign focused on key issues such as housing, public services, safety, and immigration, with Chega capitalizing on concerns over immigration and crime, especially in regions like the Algarve, where it won a plurality. However, Montenegro has ruled out cooperating with Chega, and like in Germany, a coalition between the traditional centre parties is also seen as unlikely, pointing toward another unstable minority government. The fragmented parliament raises questions about the new government's stability and its ability to form agreements with other parties, including the Liberal Initiative.