Bitcoin Falls to About $104K Amid Liquidations

Bitcoin has fallen about 13–17% in recent days to trade around $104k–$106k, touching a 15‑week low after an Oct. 17 drop below $105k that coincided with heavy leveraged liquidations, a surge in volume and a pullback that dragged major altcoins and market capitalization to July lows. The rout was amplified by U.S.–China trade tensions and stress at regional banks, although some stronger‑than‑expected regional bank earnings and calmer trade rhetoric later helped risk sentiment recover modestly. Derivatives positioning remains highly leveraged — analysts warn a 15% rally could wipe out roughly $17 billion of shorts and trigger a short squeeze — and market sentiment is at “extreme fear” (Fear & Greed Index 22), with Polymarket pricing about a 52% chance of BTC dropping below $100k this month. On‑chain metrics diverge: falling exchange reserves suggest accumulation while isolated whale moves and miner transfers into exchanges indicate intermittent sell‑side pressure; ETF flows have moderated and gold has hit fresh highs, complicating the macro picture. Technically, BTC is trading near two standard deviations below historical norms and is testing critical support — losing the $104k–$106k band risks a slide toward $98k–$100k while reclaiming $110k–$116k would likely produce a relief bounce. Public miners showed mixed results (some, like Bitdeer, rallied) and many firms are pursuing AI/HPC strategies and large financing packages, and episodic operational headlines such as Paxos’s accidental $300 trillion mint continue to underscore market fragility.