Analysts Predict Declining Russian Military Advantage

Analysts suggest that Russia's military advantage in the ongoing conflict with Ukraine is likely to diminish by the end of 2024 due to significant attrition and resource depletion. Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, notes that while Russia has maintained pressure on Ukraine, it is struggling under substantial constraints, including high casualty rates and difficulties in recruitment. Despite Russia's ongoing troop and equipment influx, the reliance on outdated Soviet-era supplies is not sustainable, limiting the military's operational effectiveness. The war's static nature has led to heavy losses, and Russia's economy and manpower pool may not be sufficient to recover from these setbacks. As a response to recruitment challenges, Moscow is offering large bonuses to attract soldiers, indicating a potential strain in its military capacity. The situation presents a bleak outlook for Russia's military sustainability moving forward.