Climate Change Expected to Increase European Supercell Thunderstorms by Over 10%

Supercell thunderstorms, characterized by rotating updrafts and severe weather phenomena such as violent winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall, are projected to increase significantly in Europe due to climate change. Research collaborations involving the University of Bern and ETH Zurich have utilized advanced high-resolution climate models, simulating storms at a 2.2-kilometer scale over an eleven-year period, to examine the changing patterns of these storms. Findings indicate that the Alpine region is a persistent hotspot, with a projected 50% increase in supercell activity on the northern side of the Alps if temperatures rise by 3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, while the southern side expects about a one-third increase. These storms cause substantial damage including property loss, agricultural impact, and threats to human safety, and their frequency is expected to rise by approximately 11% across Europe, though some areas like the Iberian Peninsula may experience decreases. The study highlights the challenges in comprehensive monitoring due to fragmented radar networks across countries and underscores the importance of understanding the evolving storm dynamics for better preparedness. This research marks a significant advancement in simulating and predicting severe convective storms in Europe under future warming scenarios.