Climate Change Elevates Disaster Risk in Cities Worldwide

Recent analyses highlight the escalating threat climate change poses to cities worldwide, with studies showing a rise in the intensity and probability of extreme weather events such as storms, floods, heatwaves, and wildfires. In the U.S., a 9% increase in rainfall intensity has made deadly storms—like those striking Arkansas, Kentucky, and Tennessee—40% more likely than in pre-industrial times, primarily due to human-induced warming. Globally, cities like Amsterdam, Houston, New York, and Austin are identified as particularly vulnerable to flooding and wildfires, with experts warning that rare but catastrophic events are becoming more probable, though their timing remains unpredictable. Urban sprawl into wildland-urban interfaces further increases risk, as seen in Athens, which narrowly avoided disaster in 2024 when a major wildfire was only prevented from engulfing the city center by favorable weather. These converging risks underscore the urgent need for emission reductions, improved urban planning, and robust forecasting systems, while also revealing the challenges in modeling climate risks due to the unpredictability and rarity of extreme events. Without adapting risk models and investing in preparedness, both financial systems and communities remain dangerously exposed to unforeseen shocks.