Reform UK Expected to Overtake Labour in Scotland's 2026 Elections

Recent polling suggests Reform UK is poised to overtake Scottish Labour and the Conservatives to become the main opposition party at the 2026 Scottish Parliament election. The party, led by Nigel Farage, now commands around 19-20% of the vote in both constituency and regional contests, surpassing Labour and significantly impacting the traditional unionist vote split. Projections by polling expert Sir John Curtice estimate the SNP will remain the largest party with 58 seats, while Reform UK would gain 21 seats, Labour 18, and the Conservatives drop to 13. Reform UK's rise is attributed to voter dissatisfaction with both Labour and the Tories, with many former voters from these parties switching allegiance to Reform UK. This shift is seen as benefiting the SNP by fracturing the unionist vote, despite the SNP's reduced vote share compared to 2021. Reform UK’s deputy leader Richard Tice criticized the UK Government’s net zero policies and dismissed calls for another Scottish independence referendum, signaling the party's broader political stance.