Adobe Forecasts US Online Holiday Sales $253B, 5.3% Growth

Adobe forecasts U.S. online holiday sales to reach $253.4 billion in 2025, marking a 5.3% year-over-year increase, with a record 10 days exceeding $5 billion in daily sales. Cyber Week, encompassing Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday, is expected to drive 17.2% of total holiday online spending at $43.7 billion, with Cyber Monday projected as the largest online shopping day at $14.2 billion. Black Friday is anticipated to grow by 8.3%, reaching $11.7 billion, while Thanksgiving online sales are predicted to hit $6.4 billion. Mobile shopping is dominant, expected to account for 56.1% of online sales, totaling $142.7 billion, reflecting an 8.5% growth from the previous year. Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) options are driving significant consumer flexibility, with $20.2 billion in expected online spend, about $2 billion more than in 2024. Additionally, generative AI-powered tools are increasingly influencing online shopping behaviors, with AI-driven traffic to retail sites expected to peak in the 10 days before Thanksgiving, enhancing consumer product research and purchasing decisions.