IMF Raises Egypt GDP Growth Forecast to 4.5% in FY2025/26 Amid Regional Economic Acceleration

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its forecast for Egypt's GDP growth to 4.5% in the fiscal year 2025/26, reflecting stronger-than-expected economic activity including a rebound in exports and a weaker currency that supports tourism and remittances. Inflation in Egypt is expected to decline significantly from 33.3% in 2024 to 20.4% in 2025 and further to 11.8% in 2026, while interest rates are forecast to ease as the Central Bank of Egypt has already cut rates multiple times in 2025. The IMF projects economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and Pakistan to accelerate to 3.2% in 2025, up from 2.1% in 2024, despite ongoing global uncertainties and regional tensions, with Gulf Cooperation Council economies and Egypt contributing positively. Morocco plans a 5.5% increase in its 2026 budget to $83 billion but anticipates a slight slowdown in economic growth to 4.6% due to global market uncertainties and an expected average grain harvest. Overall, the regional outlook shows resilience with improving fiscal positions and narrowing current account deficits, though risks remain from geopolitical tensions and global economic conditions. These diverse yet optimistic projections underscore a cautiously positive economic trajectory for North Africa and the Middle East in the near term.