Ukraine-Linked Drone Smuggling Threatens Sahel Regional Stability

Ukraine's defense industry has expanded significantly during the ongoing large-scale war, increasing its capacity especially in unmanned aerial vehicles and ground robotic systems, yet it still relies on expensive foreign armored vehicles due to a lack of long-term domestic procurement plans. Meanwhile, Russia extensively employs private military companies (PMCs) to sustain its military efforts in Ukraine and exert influence abroad, despite PMCs being officially banned in Russia; their growth poses risks to the Russian state’s control. Ukraine's geopolitical ambitions to join NATO and the EU have been complicated by its attacks on the Druzhba oil pipeline, which supplies key NATO/EU countries Hungary and Slovakia, thereby straining relations and raising concerns about European energy security. Additionally, Ukrainian-origin combat drones are reportedly being trafficked through complex arms smuggling networks in Africa, potentially escalating conflicts in the Sahel region as armed groups gain access to advanced weaponry. These developments reflect the multifaceted challenges Ukraine faces both in sustaining its defense capabilities and navigating geopolitical tensions and security threats beyond its borders.