Japan Warns of Nankai Trough Megaquake Risk

Japan's Cabinet Office has issued an updated report warning of a potential megaquake in the Nankai Trough that could kill up to 298,000 people and cause economic damage amounting to ¥270 trillion ($1.81 trillion), equivalent to nearly half of Japan's GDP. This scenario, based on a magnitude 9 earthquake, anticipates 1.23 million evacuees and the collapse of 2.35 million buildings. Despite mitigation efforts reducing the projected death toll by 10% from the 2012 estimates, the figures still fall short of the government's 2014 disaster prevention targets. The updated projections reflect inflationary pressures and new terrain data, expanding the anticipated flood area. Additionally, the number of municipalities at risk of strong seismic activity or three-meter-high tsunamis has increased, underscoring the need for improved evacuation strategies and infrastructure upgrades. The Nankai Trough, last experiencing major quakes in the 1940s, poses an 80% chance of a megaquake within the next 30 years, raising concerns given Japan's history of devastating earthquakes like the 2011 Tohoku disaster.