Israel-Iran Tensions Threaten Stability Across Horn of Africa, Sahel

Rising tensions between Israel and Iran risk indirectly destabilizing fragile regions in Africa, particularly the Horn of Africa and the Sahel, through complex alliances and proxy support, including Iran's backing of Houthi rebels linked to Somali militants and Israel's ties with Ethiopia and factions in Sudan. Despite limited direct diplomatic or economic engagement by both Middle Eastern countries in Africa, the conflict threatens to disrupt trade routes, elevate oil prices, and widen security gaps, potentially exacerbating existing crises in areas like Somalia, Sudan, and Ethiopia. Concurrently, Africa faces an intensifying challenge from hybrid warfare, wherein disinformation campaigns and cyber tactics are increasingly used to manipulate public opinion and destabilize societies, as seen in Mozambique's insurgency where misleading content hampers military and humanitarian efforts. Meanwhile, the Sahel region's military governments heavily depend on booming gold production to sustain their regimes amid jihadist insurgencies and climate challenges, with rising gold prices fueling conflicts and attracting foreign interests such as Russian firms, exemplified by Mali's new gold refinery partnership. These dynamics underscore the multifaceted security and economic vulnerabilities confronting Africa, shaped by both external geopolitical struggles and internal illicit economies. Although African governments mostly adopt cautious stances and avoid taking sides in Middle Eastern conflicts, the continent remains vulnerable to indirect economic and security shocks stemming from global tensions.