OPEC+ Plans Modest 137,000 b/d Oil Output Increase Amid Oversupply Concerns

The OPEC+ alliance, led by Saudi Arabia, is set to approve a modest increase in oil production by approximately 137,000 barrels per day for December, continuing a cautious strategy to gradually restore output suspended two years ago. This decision comes amid concerns of a rising supply glut and new Western sanctions on Russia, which complicate the group's ability to boost production as Moscow faces restrictions on major oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil. Since April, OPEC+ has increased output targets by over 2.7 million barrels per day but has moderated the pace of increases recently to address oversupply fears. Oil prices dipped to a five-month low near $60 per barrel before recovering to around $65 due to the impact of sanctions and optimism over US trade talks. Despite warnings from some analysts about potential price declines below $60, OPEC+ remains committed to a moderate production recovery based on stable market fundamentals and relatively low inventory levels. The upcoming virtual meeting reflects the group's careful balancing of market share ambitions with global supply and geopolitical challenges.