NRF predicts 2.7%-3.7% retail sales growth in 2025 amid slowing consumer spending

The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts that U.S. retail sales in 2025 will grow between 2.7% and 3.7%, reaching approximately $5.42 trillion to $5.48 trillion, despite economic uncertainties stemming from tariffs and inflation. This growth aligns with the pre-pandemic average annual sales growth of 3.6%. Non-store and online sales are projected to increase by 7% to 9%, totaling between $1.57 trillion and $1.6 trillion. While the economy shows signs of strength with low unemployment and wage gains, significant policy uncertainty is impacting consumer and business confidence. NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz emphasized that consumer fundamentals remain strong, indicating that spending is not expected to unravel despite slower growth. Overall, the NRF anticipates GDP growth to drop below 2% in 2025, a decrease from 2.8% in 2024, reflecting broader economic challenges.