Somalia Faces Political Fragmentation Amid Regional GERD Tensions

Somalia faces significant political instability ahead of the May 2026 presidential election, with entrenched divisions among regions such as Somaliland, Puntland, Jubbaland, Hiiran, and Gedo undermining prospects for a unified federal government. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's push for one-person-one-vote elections is challenged by ongoing clan-based rivalries and militia conflicts, with Puntland preparing for conflict against a newly formed North-Eastern region. Humanitarian efforts continue amidst these tensions, with the Logistics Cluster facilitating airlifts of critical relief supplies to flood-affected and insecure regions including Southwest, Jubaland, Galmudug, and Hirshabelle states. Despite prior progress in countering jihadists and strengthening federal structures, Somalia's political and security situation has deteriorated, contributing to a broader state of disorder. These developments highlight Somalia's ongoing struggle to overcome fragmentation and external influences while addressing urgent humanitarian needs.