Treasury Yields Drop After Surprise ADP Jobs Loss

A surprise ADP report showing about a 32,000 private‑sector job loss triggered a sharp Treasury rally that pushed yields lower—especially on short‑dated notes—and weighed on U.S. equity futures. Fed‑funds futures now price a near‑certain 25 basis‑point cut in October and materially higher odds of another cut in December as markets reassess the Fed’s path; investors are focused on upcoming U.S. data (nonfarm payrolls, JOLTS, initial claims) for confirmation. Reported levels showed the 2‑year near the mid‑3% area (~3.56–3.63%), the 10‑year around ~4.10–4.14%, and the 30‑year toward ~4.71%, and the move spilled across markets with UK gilt yields tracking the decline, the dollar slipping and gold rising. Strategists warned a prolonged U.S. government shutdown would increase downside growth risks and pressure the Fed toward more accommodation, though Treasury operations remain unaffected. Separately, Bangladesh’s short‑ and long‑term government yields fell into single digits after central bank liquidity injections and reduced government borrowing, with 91/182/364‑day T‑bills around 9.90%/9.78%/9.68%.