India Monsoon Arrives Early May 27 Boosting Crop Outlook

India's monsoon season is forecasted to arrive early on May 27, approximately five days ahead of the usual June 1 onset, marking the earliest arrival in at least five years. This early onset is expected to benefit the kharif sowing season and boost crop production of staples such as rice, corn, and soybeans, which are critical to India's $4 trillion economy. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has also predicted that the 2025 monsoon rainfall could be above normal, reaching around 105% of the long period average, which would be the second consecutive year of above-average rains. Nearly half of India's farmland depends on monsoon rains for irrigation, making these forecasts crucial for agricultural planning and food supply security, especially amid ongoing regional tensions with Pakistan. While some states like Jammu and Kashmir and Tamil Nadu might see below-normal rainfall, the core monsoon zones are expected to receive normal to above-normal precipitation, supporting reservoir replenishment and farming activities. Early and abundant rains are also anticipated to limit global rice price increases by enabling earlier planting in India, the world's largest rice exporter.