Somalia Faces Political Fragmentation, Economic Decline, Security Risks

Somalia is currently facing deep political and constitutional crises under President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's administration, with the president accused of attempting to unilaterally amend the 2012 Provisional Constitution, leading to a constitutional vacuum and undermining national consensus. The upcoming federal elections lack political legitimacy, consensus, and public trust, exacerbated by coercion and intimidation, while relations between the federal government and key federal member states like Puntland and Jubaland have collapsed, fueling political fragmentation and risking national unity. Clashes in Jubaland and the Gedo region have intensified, with the federal government deploying troops in contested areas, which critics see as efforts to manipulate political balances ahead of the 2026 vote. The ongoing insecurity benefits extremist groups such as Al-Shabaab, which continue to exploit Somalia's fragile federal system and political instability. Regional dynamics, including Ethiopia's strategic interests and Somalia's internal divisions, further complicate the state-building process, with international efforts like the African Union's AUSSOM mission striving to bolster Somali forces amid a protracted stalemate with insurgents. Overall, Somalia remains trapped between fragile political gains and mounting risks, facing a precarious future without broad political agreement or effective governance.