Labour Slumps to 17% After Caerphilly Defeat

YouGov polling puts Labour at a record-low 17%, level with the Conservatives, while Reform UK leads on 27%, the Greens are at 16% nationally (21% in a London sub-sample) and the Liberal Democrats at 15%, underscoring sharp volatility. The poll and OBR productivity revisions that revealed a £20bn hole ahead of the 26 November Budget have intensified pressure on Chancellor Rachel Reeves and increased the likelihood of tax rises for millions. Labour's crisis was compounded by the Caerphilly Senedd by-election, where the party finished third with just 11%, prompting Hartlepool-style comparisons and urgent warnings from senior figures to restore optimism and delivery. Lucy Powell was elected deputy leader with a low 16.6% turnout and says she will amplify members' voices as Labour seeks to steady itself before next May's local elections. Separately, the government is facing criticism after the CPS dropped spy charges against two men accused of passing information to China, and Reform UK is confronting internal unrest after candidate Sarah Pochin made racially charged remarks that have prompted calls for Nigel Farage to condemn them.