Study Estimates Higher Death Toll in Gaza

A recent study published in The Lancet estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war is about 40% higher than reported by the Palestinian health ministry. The ministry reported 37,877 deaths, while the study estimates between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths due to traumatic injuries, with a best estimate of 64,260. This estimate suggests that around 2.9% of Gaza's pre-war population has died, with 59% of the casualties being women, children, and the elderly. The study's methodology utilized a 'capture-recapture' statistical approach, incorporating data from multiple sources, including health ministry records and social media obituaries. The health ministry's latest figures indicate 46,006 deaths over the full 15 months of conflict, but researchers caution that the actual toll may be higher, as their estimates do not account for deaths related to healthcare disruptions or food shortages. The findings highlight significant discrepancies between reported figures and likely casualties in the ongoing conflict, amidst debates on the credibility of the health ministry's data.