IMF Reports AI Growth to Outpace Carbon Emissions Costs

Artificial intelligence is projected to significantly boost global economic growth, with the IMF estimating a 0.5% annual GDP increase through 2030, far outweighing the rising carbon emissions from energy-hungry data centers. While AI's rapid expansion will drive up electricity demand—potentially tripling global consumption dedicated to AI by 2030—researchers argue that the economic benefits will surpass the environmental costs. The International Energy Agency (IEA) takes a relatively optimistic view, suggesting that concerns about AI-driven climate risks may be overstated and highlighting AI's potential to help reduce emissions in other sectors. Both the IMF and IEA stress the importance of policy and infrastructure improvements to manage the increased energy load, such as building data centers in areas with robust grid capacity and using on-site generation. However, there are warnings that if the electricity sector does not adapt, AI's growth could strain broader electrification and affordability goals. Overall, experts agree that while AI presents environmental challenges, its economic promise and capacity to drive emissions reductions elsewhere make it a net positive—with caveats about the need for responsible planning and proactive policy.