Oil Falls Ahead of OPEC+ Meeting

Oil prices slipped sharply this week, with Brent around $64.7 and WTI near $61, marking the steepest weekly declines in months and putting both benchmarks on track for roughly 6–8% weekly losses. The sell-off has been driven mainly by expectations that OPEC+ will ramp up output at its weekend meeting — market estimates range from a few hundred thousand barrels per day to as much as 500,000 bpd — and by the roughly 1.66 million bpd of supply that has already returned to the market. Emerging oversupply has been reinforced by larger-than-expected U.S. commercial crude builds, slowing refinery runs and new or resumed flows from Kurdistan and the Iraq–Türkiye pipeline. Weaker demand prospects, including the risk of a U.S. government shutdown, softer global growth and seasonal refinery maintenance, have compounded bearish sentiment, though geopolitical risks and China’s strategic buying provide some support. A Chevron El Segundo refinery fire has produced localized fuel disruptions, but analysts warn a sizeable OPEC+ boost could still push prices back toward the mid-$50s; the market is now focused on the OPEC+ decision on Sunday, which traders say will likely determine near-term direction.