Bitcoin Cycle Obsolete Amid ETF, Macro Shifts

Bitcoin has rebounded and is trading near $118,000–$120,000, about 4% below its all-time high, fueled by macroeconomic optimism following U.S. President Trump's EU tariff rollback and speculation over upcoming Federal Reserve rate cuts. Leading analysts, including Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, now consider the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle theory obsolete as institutional adoption, spot Bitcoin ETF flows, and regulatory clarity reshape the market. This transition has reduced volatility and 'blow-up risk,' aligning Bitcoin's behavior more closely with that of a macro asset dominated by institutional and corporate flows. Despite some consolidation and resistance around $120,000, the market outlook is bullish, with expectations of steadier, sustained growth instead of parabolic surges. Market participants are advised to watch key support and resistance levels, as well as the Federal Reserve's imminent policy decision, for further direction. Analysts broadly agree that Bitcoin's future growth will rely more on institutional capital and regulatory support than on traditional halving cycles.